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"Market Outlook"

What to watch out for in 2019
We’re used to the ups and downs of different business cycles, and we’ve come to expect and prepare for them. But with unusual circumstances such as a trade war and the reversal of quantitative easing, the outlook becomes harder to predict. As risks build across the global economy, here are the key things we’ll be looking out for in 2019.
Market Outlook: June
As we find ourselves almost halfway through the year, the volatility we experienced at the end of 2018 is not only a distant memory but could also prove, with time, to have been the shock markets needed to adjust their expectations in line with reality.
Market Outlook: February
This year managed to get off to a positive start with equity markets recovering some of the losses endured at the end of 2018. This recovery was largely due to the US Federal Reserve (Fed) taking a U-turn on monetary policy.
Capital protection is key as global growth slows
As 2018 draws to a close, we’re taking a slightly more defensive position on behalf of our clients, with capital protection underpinning many of our investment decisions. Here we explain why we’ve further reduced our exposure to equities, and what we see as the key risks to economic growth going forward.
Market Outlook: March
Since the Federal Reserve (Fed) paused interest rate hikes, markets have been taking a ‘wait-and-see’ approach, leading to a recovery in equity valuations and a period of relative calm. But with inflation pressures still evident in both the US and UK, and the outlook for growth looking uncertain, our focus is on three potential scenarios as the year progresses.
Global economy blossoms, while the UK falters
As the global economy continues to enjoy strong growth, our macroeconomic outlook is one of cautious optimism. We’re optimistic because company earnings growth is good thanks to supportive US fiscal and monetary policy, and this trend looks set to continue. At the same time, interest rates in the US, Europe and Japan are still well below levels that could tip the global economy into a recession.
Why now is not the time to change your investment strategy
According to reports, investors have withdrawn 3% of their equity investments so far this year, which is twice the amount withdrawn at the height of the 2008 financial crisis. When negative sentiment is abundant and investment risks are at large, the temptation is to cut and run for the shelter of ‘safer’ assets.
There’s a disturbance in the (economic) force
Like any chemistry teacher will tell you, equilibrium isn’t always the optimum state. It can lack energy, opportunity and excitement. The relative calm of equity markets over the last few years may have led to happy investors, but it was driven by artificially low interest rates and, at some point, something had to give.
Rising bond yields: Friend or foe?
Traditionally, when bond yields rise equity markets fall as investors take advantage of higher returns for less risk. And in the last few weeks, we’ve seen just that. US interest rates increased, bond yields followed suit and equity markets became agitated.
Keeping a close eye on inflation
Amid strong global economic growth and positive market sentiment, it would be premature to talk of an economic downturn. But with US inflation above target and set to increase further, interest rates on the rise and ongoing talk of a trade war, it’s important to look beyond the current economic cycle.
Is the bull about to enter the china shop?
The US economy recently celebrated a significant milestone – the longest bull market in history. The S&P 500 is double the value it was during the highs prior to the credit crunch and has risen nearly 250% since the lows that followed. History suggests that the end of this current cycle is nigh but predicting when that will be is incredibly difficult.
Should we be concerned about a slowing economy?
It’s safe to say investors have enjoyed a positive 2019, so far. But with several key nations including Germany, UK, Canada, South Korea, China and Japan predicting weaker economic conditions, and growth in the US economy looking set to slow, should we be concerned, or is this the opportunity we’ve been waiting for?

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